http://doi.org/10.26347/1607-2502202209-10021-025

MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND PREDICTING OF THE ADDICTION OF TOBACCO SMOKING AMONG FEMALE STUDENTS OF MEDICAL UNIVERSITY

P.N. Bolshakova1, S.N. Cherkasov2, V.E. Bolshakov3

Financing. The study had no funding.

Conflict of interests. The authors declare no competing interest.

For citation: Bolshakova PN, Sergey Cherkasov SN, Bolshakov VE. Mathematical modeling and predicting of the addiction of tobacco smoking among female students of medical university. Health Care Standardization Problems. 2022; 9-10: 21-25. DOI: 10.26347/1607-2502202209-10021-025

1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, REAVIZ Medical University; 2 V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences; 3 Department of Information Systems and Telecommunications, Bauman Moscow State Technical University

Objective. To make mathematical modeling and design an adequate predictive model with the identification of the main factors affecting the adherence to smoking among female students of a medical university.Methods. Phases and methods of statistical processing: cleaning expert data from factors that caused irreconcilable disagreements of experts using the Cochran and Bartlett criteria; checking the significance of the concordance rate using the Pearson χ2 criterion; designing a mathematical model for predicting of nicotine addiction among female students of medical universities; ranking factors of nicotine addiction in the form of an histogram, constructed in descending order of numerical values, taken in the form of percent; assessment of the compliance of the ranking obtained with the objective laws of nature using the Zipf law for comparing the obtained histogram with the Zipf curve.Results. The study of nicotine addiction among female students of medical universities identified 8 main factors out of 26 factors: academic performance, number of cigarettes per day, how difficult abstinence from smoking is, smoking of entourage, which cigarette is more difficult to refrain from, the time of the first cigarette, smoker irritation by the persuasion to quit smoking. Self-rejection of addiction is reliably possible (p

P.N. Bolshakova1, S.N. Cherkasov2, V.E. Bolshakov3

About the authors:

Polina N. Bolshakova — Ph.D. in Medicine, Associate Professor, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, REAVIZ Medical University, Moscow, Russia. Е-mail: pima.73@mail.ru. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7595-7024.

Sergey N. Cherkasov — Sc.D. in Medicine, Chief Researcher, Laboratory of Public Health Management No. 81, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Moscow, Russia. E-mail: cherkasovsn@mail.ru; ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1664-6802.

Vladislav E. Bolshakov — 3rd-year student, Department of Information Systems and Telecommunications, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6195-1550

1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, REAVIZ Medical University; 2 V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences; 3 Department of Information Systems and Telecommunications, Bauman Moscow State Technical University